By Sanjana Jayashankar
The longstanding trans-Atlantic alliance has come under fire, like never before, with the change in the American government. Donald Trump’s newly appointed defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, recently said that the US is no longer “primarily focused” on European security. He urged Europe to take charge of its security and defend Ukraine. Trump has demanded that the European allies of NATO increase their spending from the existing 2% target that some countries still don't meet, to 5% of the GDP. Recently, Trump’s open support for Putin puts the future of the Atlantic alliance and NATO in jeopardy. Since the formation of NATO post World War II, the US has been the European defence and security anchor. Apart from a large number of troops stationed across Europe, the US also provides nuclear weapons, significant logistics and intelligence tools.
The Transatlantic Alliance has always been characterised by asymmetry and dependence. Over the years, multiple US presidents have expressed concerns about Europe’s insufficient financial contributions to NATO. In the last decade, however, this criticism has become more pronounced. Under Joe Biden, it became evident that the USA’s priority would be the Indo-Pacific, with China as its main competitor. As the US-Russia relationship takes a new shape under Trump, Europe’s internal defence and security seem to matter less to the US. Like its European NATO allies, the UK has also faced pressure from the US to raise its financial contributions.
Recently, Keir Starmer backed Trump’s call for NATO allies to increase their defence spending. He also promised to hike the UK’s defence spending up to 2.5% of its GDP by 2027 from its current 2.3%, which is about $17 billion a year. If they stick to this rate of increase, they will be at 3% by 2034. This idea of European defence and security independence is gaining momentum, with Germany’s Friedrich Merz vowing independence from Trump’s America and hinting at the death of NATO.
Two key parts of this are worth noting: the history of trans-Atlantic relations and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the roughly 40 peacekeeping missions conducted over the years as part of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), European nations continue to rely on the security provided by NATO for their domestic safety concerns. The lack of unity among EU nations hinders their progress towards a more independent European Union. While Merz’s open call for a stronger EU is crucial at this moment, historical context and a lack of trust prevent Germany from taking the lead on this policy. This is illustrated by Greece and France, among other nations, which fear Germany expanding its defence budget. Beyond historical factors, Germany’s pursuit of greater EU independence will also be seen as self-serving. Jeremy Shapiro – Director at the European Council of Foreign Relations – aptly characterises the USA as an aloof parent to the EU nations, with the EU nations caring primarily about the US only when conflicts between its siblings (other EU nations) require resolution.
Trump’s engagement with Russia has led to new urgency for a more solid talk about defence spending. The UK and the rest of the EU leaders will join in to have talks about setting up a Europe-wide defence funding arrangement soon at the G20 meeting in Cape Town.
Both of the US’s key allies, France and the UK, have urged the US to continue its commitment and maintain security guarantees to Ukraine. Despite their insistence, Trump seems set on pushing a large part of the responsibility onto Europe. Russia has also expressed its opposition to European peacekeeping forces stationed in Ukraine, essentially putting the European NATO allies in a bit of a financial and political limbo. Europe remains dependent on the USA and NATO to financially and militarily ward off the threat that Russia poses. However, with Trump’s shift in stance and new support for Russia’s version of events, Europe has to balance a tightrope between its political values and its security needs.
These events call for an independent Europe with the UK, Germany, or France, all of whom can step in and provide for a stable EU defence budget, are needed more than ever. There is, however, a likelihood that in present circumstances, European nations might just wait it out and maintain this tough balance while depending on NATO and the USA, as they have done for years now. While it is easier said than done, European nations need to forge an agreement in a way that does not allow for the abuse of power by one nation. Financial scaling up has to come with policies and a proper and practical plan that sets out checks and balances in a way that all countries feel safeguarded by it.
As the situation unfolds, it appears that the UK wishes to maintain close ties with the US as it increases defence spending. It also seems keen to collaborate with the rest of the European Union towards establishing a more independent EU defence and security framework. The UK and France are engaged in discussions to formulate a plan to deploy 30,000 European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, should a cease-fire agreement be reached. Time will tell if these measures are sufficient. Meanwhile, the rise of the new axis alliance, China-Russia-North Korea-Iran bloc gives a sense of heightened urgency to an independent European defence and security plan. In an increasingly multipolar global order, all actors, including the BRICS nations, will now have their interests in the future of NATO.
The ball is in your court, Europe. Might not be for long.
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